{
 "meta": {
  "index": "Relative Decline Index",
  "version": "1.0",
  "scored": "2026-09-22",
  "next_review": "2026-12-31",
  "axes": {
   "level": "POWER LEVEL 0-100. Composite of share of world output (PPP/nominal blend), share of world manufacturing value-added, military expenditure and deployable force, technology-frontier presence, financial centrality, alliance depth. The United States anchors the upper range.",
   "velocity": "DECLINE VELOCITY -10 to +10. Half the annualised five-year change in Power Level (scaled), half a forward momentum score built from demographic and fiscal commitments already locked in. Negative is decline; magnitude is speed."
  },
  "engines": {
   "demo": "Demographic — births, working-age trajectory, dependency ratio, net migration. Half-life 40-80 years.",
   "fisc": "Fiscal — debt path, interest burden, reserve privilege, external balance. Half-life 10-25 years.",
   "prod": "Productive — productivity growth, investment efficiency, industrial base, energy cost. Half-life 10-20 years.",
   "inst": "Institutional — state capacity, rule of law, succession clarity, policy reversibility. Half-life 5-30 years.",
   "coh": "Cohesive — trust, polarisation, elite overproduction, legitimacy. Half-life 2-15 years."
  },
  "note": "Engine scores are 0-100 where 100 is healthy. A low score is a failing engine, not a moral judgement. Every score traces to indicators published on the method page.",
  "endurance": "ENDURANCE 0-100+. Survival horizon, not current power. Weighted to the slow engines because that is what the historical record rewards: 45% demographic, 25% institutional, 20% fiscal, 10% productive, plus a population-mass bonus (log scale, max +9) and a -6 penalty where the recovery asset has already been spent (second life or terminal decline). Endurance deliberately does NOT track decline velocity — a nation can fall fast and still outlast one that is falling slowly."
 },
 "stages": [
  {
   "id": "ascent",
   "name": "Ascent",
   "desc": "Share rising, engines compounding."
  },
  {
   "id": "apex",
   "name": "Apex",
   "desc": "Peak share reached or imminent. The most dangerous stage."
  },
  {
   "id": "plateau",
   "name": "Plateau",
   "desc": "Level held, momentum gone."
  },
  {
   "id": "first",
   "name": "First Decline",
   "desc": "Share falling, recovery instruments still available."
  },
  {
   "id": "second",
   "name": "Second Life",
   "desc": "A completed decline followed by a genuine rebound — now ending."
  },
  {
   "id": "terminal",
   "name": "Terminal Decline",
   "desc": "Relative position falling with the recovery asset already spent."
  }
 ],
 "nations": [
  {
   "id": "us",
   "name": "United States",
   "code": "USA",
   "page": "united-states.html",
   "level": 88,
   "level5": 90,
   "velocity": -1.4,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 342,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 62,
    "fisc": 31,
    "prod": 78,
    "inst": 48,
    "coh": 34
   },
   "headline": "$39.39tn debt; net interest past defence and Medicare",
   "call": "Slow, non-monotonic, rising variance. The share falls while the country grows.",
   "lx": -8,
   "ly": -14,
   "endurance": 62.5,
   "outlast_rank": 4
  },
  {
   "id": "cn",
   "name": "China",
   "code": "CHN",
   "page": "china.html",
   "level": 74,
   "level5": 70,
   "velocity": -3.4,
   "stage": "apex",
   "pop": 1405,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 22,
    "fisc": 38,
    "prod": 71,
    "inst": 44,
    "coh": 37
   },
   "headline": "Fourth straight population fall; 10 quarters of deflation",
   "call": "Peaking, not collapsing. Peaking powers with closing windows are the historic risk.",
   "lx": -6,
   "ly": -14,
   "endurance": 44.6,
   "outlast_rank": 16
  },
  {
   "id": "ru",
   "name": "Russia",
   "code": "RUS",
   "page": "russia.html",
   "level": 31,
   "level5": 38,
   "velocity": -5.6,
   "stage": "second",
   "pop": 146,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 14,
    "fisc": 26,
    "prod": 29,
    "inst": 22,
    "coh": 31
   },
   "headline": "Births at a 200-year low; oil and gas revenue -38.3%",
   "call": "The fastest decline among the majors, and the least reversible.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 21.3,
   "outlast_rank": 20
  },
  {
   "id": "de",
   "name": "Germany",
   "code": "DEU",
   "page": "europe.html",
   "level": 34,
   "level5": 39,
   "velocity": -3.8,
   "stage": "first",
   "pop": 84,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 29,
    "fisc": 58,
    "prod": 41,
    "inst": 66,
    "coh": 49
   },
   "headline": "Industry 15% below its 2017-18 peak; electricity at EUR0.25/kWh",
   "call": "The productive engine is failing independently of everything else.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 3,
   "endurance": 51.8,
   "outlast_rank": 12
  },
  {
   "id": "jp",
   "name": "Japan",
   "code": "JPN",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 36,
   "level5": 39,
   "velocity": -2.6,
   "stage": "first",
   "pop": 123,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 12,
    "fisc": 28,
    "prod": 58,
    "inst": 72,
    "coh": 62
   },
   "headline": "TFR 1.14; natural decline over 900,000 in 2025",
   "call": "The most competent management of the worst demography. A model, not a warning.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": -4,
   "endurance": 41.9,
   "outlast_rank": 18
  },
  {
   "id": "in",
   "name": "India",
   "code": "IND",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 52,
   "level5": 44,
   "velocity": 3.6,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 1450,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 74,
    "fisc": 42,
    "prod": 54,
    "inst": 46,
    "coh": 41
   },
   "headline": "The only billion-scale economy with a working-age tailwind",
   "call": "Rising, but the institutional engine is the binding constraint.",
   "lx": -6,
   "ly": -14,
   "endurance": 67.6,
   "outlast_rank": 3
  },
  {
   "id": "uk",
   "name": "United Kingdom",
   "code": "GBR",
   "page": "europe.html",
   "level": 31,
   "level5": 33,
   "velocity": -1.8,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 69,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 46,
    "fisc": 36,
    "prod": 47,
    "inst": 61,
    "coh": 44
   },
   "headline": "Now the #2 foreign holder of US Treasuries at $897bn",
   "call": "Financial centrality outliving the productive base that created it.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 12,
   "endurance": 54.1,
   "outlast_rank": 9
  },
  {
   "id": "fr",
   "name": "France",
   "code": "FRA",
   "page": "europe.html",
   "level": 30,
   "level5": 32,
   "velocity": -2.1,
   "stage": "first",
   "pop": 68,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 48,
    "fisc": 33,
    "prod": 49,
    "inst": 57,
    "coh": 38
   },
   "headline": "African base network collapsed; Africa Corps moved into the gap",
   "call": "The cleanest live example of Gilpin's ledger: commitments shed, not added.",
   "lx": -32,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 53.6,
   "outlast_rank": 10
  },
  {
   "id": "it",
   "name": "Italy",
   "code": "ITA",
   "page": "europe.html",
   "level": 20,
   "level5": 23,
   "velocity": -4.0,
   "stage": "terminal",
   "pop": 59,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 16,
    "fisc": 24,
    "prod": 35,
    "inst": 45,
    "coh": 42
   },
   "headline": "Working-age population shrinks by more than a third by 2060",
   "call": "Terminal in the relative sense: the recovery asset no longer exists.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 26.8,
   "outlast_rank": 19
  },
  {
   "id": "kr",
   "name": "South Korea",
   "code": "KOR",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 25,
   "level5": 26,
   "velocity": -3.2,
   "stage": "apex",
   "pop": 51,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 8,
    "fisc": 52,
    "prod": 76,
    "inst": 63,
    "coh": 47
   },
   "headline": "TFR bottomed at 0.72, recovering to ~0.80 — still the world's lowest",
   "call": "The highest-performing economy attached to the worst demographic engine on earth.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": -4,
   "endurance": 43.2,
   "outlast_rank": 17
  },
  {
   "id": "id",
   "name": "Indonesia",
   "code": "IDN",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 30,
   "level5": 25,
   "velocity": 3.8,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 283,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 71,
    "fisc": 61,
    "prod": 48,
    "inst": 44,
    "coh": 52
   },
   "headline": "2.6Mt of the world's 3.9Mt nickel; BRICS member, OECD applicant",
   "call": "A middle power learning to be courted by everyone and captured by no one.",
   "lx": -14,
   "ly": -14,
   "endurance": 68.3,
   "outlast_rank": 2
  },
  {
   "id": "vn",
   "name": "Vietnam",
   "code": "VNM",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 19,
   "level5": 15,
   "velocity": 4.2,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 101,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 63,
    "fisc": 55,
    "prod": 54,
    "inst": 42,
    "coh": 58
   },
   "headline": "6.3-7.6% growth, the fastest in the region",
   "call": "Bamboo diplomacy executed well. The window closes when its own TFR does.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 62.1,
   "outlast_rank": 5
  },
  {
   "id": "au",
   "name": "Australia",
   "code": "AUS",
   "page": "asia-pacific.html",
   "level": 22,
   "level5": 21,
   "velocity": 0.9,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 27,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 68,
    "fisc": 66,
    "prod": 52,
    "inst": 78,
    "coh": 57
   },
   "headline": "Three decades of selective migration; no demographic cliff",
   "call": "The empirical answer to Europe — chosen migration, at scale, with consent maintained.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": -9,
   "endurance": 73.4,
   "outlast_rank": 1
  },
  {
   "id": "pl",
   "name": "Poland",
   "code": "POL",
   "page": "europe.html",
   "level": 17,
   "level5": 14,
   "velocity": 3.1,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 37,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 31,
    "fisc": 54,
    "prod": 57,
    "inst": 52,
    "coh": 55
   },
   "headline": "Europe's fastest-rearming state and its fastest-growing large economy",
   "call": "Rising inside a declining bloc. The dispersion within Europe is the story.",
   "lx": -24,
   "ly": -12,
   "endurance": 48.8,
   "outlast_rank": 14
  },
  {
   "id": "br",
   "name": "Brazil",
   "code": "BRA",
   "page": "south-america.html",
   "level": 24,
   "level5": 23,
   "velocity": -0.4,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 213,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 52,
    "fisc": 34,
    "prod": 38,
    "inst": 40,
    "coh": 39
   },
   "headline": "Strong growth, weak institutions — the trap in one country",
   "call": "The ceiling is institutional, not geological.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 51.9,
   "outlast_rank": 11
  },
  {
   "id": "sa",
   "name": "Gulf States",
   "code": "GCC",
   "page": "frontiers.html",
   "level": 23,
   "level5": 20,
   "velocity": 1.6,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 60,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 58,
    "fisc": 72,
    "prod": 41,
    "inst": 39,
    "coh": 48
   },
   "headline": "Sovereign capital moving into African and Asian resource positions",
   "call": "Buying influence on the way down of the commodity that funded it.",
   "lx": -40,
   "ly": 14,
   "endurance": 60.4,
   "outlast_rank": 6
  },
  {
   "id": "tr",
   "name": "Turkey",
   "code": "TUR",
   "page": "frontiers.html",
   "level": 18,
   "level5": 17,
   "velocity": 0.6,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 87,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 54,
    "fisc": 29,
    "prod": 44,
    "inst": 33,
    "coh": 36
   },
   "headline": "Drones for influence across the Sahel; Montreux as leverage",
   "call": "A middle power monetising chokepoints and defence exports.",
   "lx": -46,
   "ly": 3,
   "endurance": 49.3,
   "outlast_rank": 13
  },
  {
   "id": "ng",
   "name": "Nigeria",
   "code": "NGA",
   "page": "africa.html",
   "level": 14,
   "level5": 13,
   "velocity": 0.8,
   "stage": "ascent",
   "pop": 233,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 82,
    "fisc": 27,
    "prod": 24,
    "inst": 26,
    "coh": 28
   },
   "headline": "The best demographic engine in the model, attached to the weakest institutions",
   "call": "A dividend if the jobs arrive, a detonator if they do not.",
   "lx": -20,
   "ly": 15,
   "endurance": 59.2,
   "outlast_rank": 7
  },
  {
   "id": "za",
   "name": "South Africa",
   "code": "ZAF",
   "page": "africa.html",
   "level": 11,
   "level5": 14,
   "velocity": -3.4,
   "stage": "first",
   "pop": 63,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 49,
    "fisc": 31,
    "prod": 26,
    "inst": 34,
    "coh": 29
   },
   "headline": "Outsized diplomacy on a shrinking material base",
   "call": "The clearest case of influence outliving capacity.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 4,
   "endurance": 45.5,
   "outlast_rank": 15
  },
  {
   "id": "mx",
   "name": "Mexico",
   "code": "MEX",
   "page": "south-america.html",
   "level": 21,
   "level5": 20,
   "velocity": 0.3,
   "stage": "plateau",
   "pop": 131,
   "engines": {
    "demo": 57,
    "fisc": 44,
    "prod": 40,
    "inst": 36,
    "coh": 35
   },
   "headline": "Nearshoring gains against cartel-driven institutional erosion",
   "call": "Strong growth, weak institutions — the second half of the Latin American divide.",
   "lx": 10,
   "ly": 13,
   "endurance": 54.6,
   "outlast_rank": 8
  }
 ]
}